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Next Big One will strike Sumatra within decades

14 October 2009 53 views 69 Comments

Another earthquake similar to the one that caused the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami will be arriving within decades. It centers on Padang and the tectonic time bomb it is sitting on. This time it might be 8.8 magnitude. Geologist Kelly Sieh shared this pretty terrifying tales.

Region of concern

Photo from BBC

Sieh is as certain of this prediction as scientists get. He has narrowed the timeframe to mere decades — a small window in a field where scientists more commonly study patterns in land and rock formations spanning hundreds or thousands of years.

The evidence comes from measurements made with the global positioning system (GPS) which tracks horizontal and vertical land movement, and recovering prehistoric data from coral, which record sea-level changes in their growth patterns over the centuries.  His team found that Sumatra has been hit by a sequence of large earthquakes caused by ruptures along the Sunda megathrust about every 200 years: in the 1300s, 1600s and 1800s. So the next one is coming, he says, and Sumatra’s central western coast will be ground zero. -TheMalaysianInsider

Overview of Sumatra ruptures

Picking up an age-worn globe, he points to the exact spot where the quake will hit and its likely trail of destruction. Because it will be further south than the 2004 quake, any tsunami would be most serious along the central western coast of Sumatra, and in the opposite direction, south-west heading to Mauritius and South Africa, where the waves would arrive many hours later and have time to dissipate. But the giant waves could affect more than a million people along the Sumatra coastline, particularly in the densely populated city of Padang.

Soldiers and volunteers carry an earthquake victim from a collapsed hotel in Padang on Indonesia's Sumatra island October 1, 2009. (REUTERS/Muhammad Fitrah/Singgalang Newspaper)

Soldiers and volunteers carry an earthquake victim from a collapsed hotel in Padang on Indonesia's Sumatra island October 1, 2009. (REUTERS/Muhammad Fitrah/Singgalang Newspaper)

There is nothing to stop the expected tragedy. We can only get the word out so that more can be done to save lives. Hopefully this time it won’t be that deadly.

To learn more about the science behind the quake, visit HERE

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